ACUS11 KWNS 160133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160132=20
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-160600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024

Areas affected...Southern LA...south-central MS...northern
AL...northwest GA...and southeast TN

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 160132Z - 160600Z

SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation (primarily freezing rain and
sleet) will continue across portions of the Southeast into the
overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and web cams show a
continuation of light freezing rain extending from southern LA
northeastward into southeast TN this evening. This precipitation is
generally being aided by a persistent low-level frontogenetic
circulation and steady low-level warm advection across the region.
This forcing for ascent should remain fairly persistent and
quasi-stationary through about 06Z, with a slight southeastward
evolution of the frontogenetic band with time.=20

The 00Z observed JAN sounding depicts an 8 dec C warm nose atop a
substantial (albeit shallow) sub-freezing layer (minimum wet bulb
temperature of -8 deg C). Any descending ice should completely melt
before re-freezing at the surface, suggesting that freezing rain
will remain the predominant precipitation type. Farther north toward
northwest GA and southeast TN, a deeper sub-freezing layer and
minimal warm nose may favor a mix of sleet and freezing rain. While
dry air aloft overspreading the region (evident in water vapor
imagery and observed/forecast soundings) and modest forcing for
ascent may temper overall precipitation rates, the quasi-stationary
forcing will support a fairly prolonged period of light to moderate
freezing rain and sleet, with localized bursts of higher rates
possible in the more robust cores.=20

Colder surface temperatures will gradually spread southeastward and
support freezing rain in areas currently above freezing during the
next few hours (i.e., portions of southeast LA and east-central MS).

..Weinman.. 01/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4o24U-NeWsdduDOdsIENAXTlkgteWEmxmoT_G1mUSez8Mx7ZP7MFVhi6pCGpEepE3Rpk1S_GI= Vz3gA6gRejaOd9FzDs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...
LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30269318 30779292 31449196 32569019 34488706 35308530
35408476 35128432 34638466 33158682 31378909 30519025
29549117 29349200 29439257 29729316 30269318=20


=3D =3D =3D
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