ACUS11 KWNS 151345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151345=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-151745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0067
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024

Areas affected...ArkLaTex into parts of the Mid South/TN Valley

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 151345Z - 151745Z

SUMMARY...An uptick in winter precipitation rates is possible
through the morning. Moderate snow will be possible along the
northern part of the precipitation shield, with sleet and localized
freezing rain to the south.

DISCUSSION...Some increase in coverage and intensity of winter
precipitation has been noted on radar over the last 1-2 hours
near/east of the ArkLaTex region, likely in response to an
approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the
southern Plains. This area of precipitation will move
east-northeastward toward the Mid South region, with downstream
enhancement of precipitation possible later this morning toward the
TN Valley region, within a persistent warm-advection regime.=20

12Z soundings from SHV and JAN depicted a notable warm layer from
900-750 mb, with LZK sounding also briefly rising above freezing
around 750 mb. Dual pol data from KNQA indicate that the sleet/snow
transition line runs roughly east-west, just to the south of the
TN/MS border. There may be some tendency for the sleet/snow line to
move slightly southward with time across northern MS, as ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave results in some midlevel
cooling, while low-level warm advection gradually abates. However,
some oscillations in precipitation type will continue to be possible
near the transition zone.

Where precipitation remains as or transitions to snow, moderate to
briefly heavy precipitation rates may support localized rates near 1
inch/hour. Otherwise, occasionally moderate sleet will accompany the
heavier precipitation, with freezing rain remaining possible along
the southern fringe of the precipitation shield.

..Dean.. 01/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-etBcHdu4r-nFwQvWfhZYsUgX3NicalZKfSYnDduJnq4ylQBvQTG6knxDw3aSg4P6JjbbApaX= e5EynRp050mOA14iQA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 33069147 33029201 33639227 34209210 34409144 35149013
35558857 34998818 34138835 33069147=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)