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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0066

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jan 15 00:48:39 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 150048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150048=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-150545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0066
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0648 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

    Areas affected...East TX...northwest LA...southern AR...and northern
    MS

    Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

    Valid 150048Z - 150545Z

    SUMMARY...An increase in winter mixed precipitation is expected from
    portions of east TX east-northeastward into northern MS over the
    next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Over the next few hours, a band of low-level
    frontogenesis extending from northeast TX through southern AR into
    northern MS is expected to strengthen in response to increasing
    low-level confluence. Along/south of this feature, the ascending
    branch of the frontogenetic circulation and steady low-level warm
    advection should support an increase in precipitation over the next
    few hours. Radar echoes are gradually increasing across this
    corridor amid cooling cloud tops.=20

    Forecast soundings generally depict a 2-4 deg C warm nose just below
    850 mb atop a substantial sub-freezing layer (surface temperatures
    in the upper teens to lower/middle 20s). These profiles should
    support a mix of sleet and freezing rain across much of the area,
    with the primary precipitation type expected to transition to sleet
    given an ample low-level sub-freezing layer and nocturnally cooling
    surface temperatures. The one exception may be over the southern
    portions of the discussion area (east-central TX into western LA),
    where a 4-6 deg C warm nose atop a shallower sub-freezing layer may
    favor increasing hydrometeor melting and freezing rain.
    Nevertheless, the potential for impacts from the mixed winter
    precipitation should gradually increase in the 02-06Z time frame.

    ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5-Fh0DT2Qf1j2-2_tcck8Rh_fj6VOC-aPxKXHCqyzgisJdKcMaTTX1TXumMPIHLWtjU8nfxDg= 2MDzw6Ge-s-Av_IftY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 30979415 30739472 30989525 31289558 32249571 32979551
    33579493 33939418 34319227 34729040 34898949 34918850
    34768829 34338823 34068862 33528961 32719140 31969268
    30979415=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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