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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0064

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jan 14 20:50:11 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 142050
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142049=20
    NYZ000-150045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0064
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0249 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

    Areas affected...Upstate New York

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 142049Z - 150045Z

    SUMMARY...The onset of heavy snowfall rates up to (and possibly
    exceeding) two inches per hour is anticipated in the next few hours
    for the northeast shore of Lake Ontario. A heavy lake-effect snow
    band emanating off Lake Erie should continue into the early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends over the past hour have shown the development of a more persistent lake-effect snow band in the
    Watertown, NY vicinity. Additionally, low-level confluence over Lake
    Ontario may be increasing based on trends in the shallow convective
    streaks in GOES visible imagery. High-res model guidance has hinted
    in the development of a more persistent lake-effect band beginning
    during the 21-00 UTC period over the past several model runs. The aforementioned observed trends lend confidence to this forecast and
    suggest the onset may be closer to the 21-23 UTC period. Upstream,
    lake-effect bands coming off of Lake Erie have resulted in snowfall
    rates up to 2 in/hour. Given similar thermodynamic profiles aloft
    and warmer water temperatures (6 C vs. 4 C), similar, if not higher,
    snowfall rates are expected.=20

    To the southwest, a persistent lake-effect band to the south of
    Buffalo, NY is expected to persist into the evening hours. As
    mentioned, snowfall rates up to 2 in/hour have been observed, and
    strong low-level confluence over Lake Erie is noted in recent
    surface observations. Guidance hints at a gradual weakening of this
    band after the 00 UTC time frame.

    ..Moore.. 01/14/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9IrSE4OuW8G_-nSnCt3gJvHDc7E5VIc4cp4LgiOEZTl3yGuA7CNujlqb2G8CXbqivjubBwoF5= bdw_G3_uRmsB-aN8tw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 43837636 44047626 44267527 44277493 44157463 44057453
    43777450 43587463 43497483 43557597 43627624 43737632
    43837636=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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