ACUS11 KWNS 141650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141649=20 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-142045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

Areas affected...Southeast New York into the New England region

Concerning...Snow Squall=20

Valid 141649Z - 142045Z

SUMMARY...Thermodynamic conditions will remain favorable for snow
squalls as a cold front pushes east into the New England region.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar depicts broken bands of shallow
convection along an eastward moving cold front from upstate NY into
eastern PA. Visibility reductions between 1/4 to 1 mile have been
observed with the passage of these bands and are primarily being
driven by bursts of moderate to heavy snow with 25-35 mph wind
gusts. The 12 UTC PIT sounding likely sampled the convective
environment most accurately with nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates
from the surface to ~750 mb, which appears to be represented well by
recent 0-3 km lapse rate analyses. The plume of 8+ C/km low-level
lapse rates is forecast to spread to the northeast into the New
England region through the day in tandem with the cooler mid-level
temperatures associated with the primary trough axis. Low-level
instability should be bolstered by modest diurnal heating between
cloud breaks through the afternoon, and a weak influx of moisture
may support occasional lightning flashes, though sustained,
lightning-producing convection is not necessarily anticipated.
Nonetheless, the combination of improving low-level thermodynamics,
focused ascent along the front, and 30-40 mph winds within the
boundary layer should maintain the snow squall potential well into
the afternoon.

..Moore.. 01/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!65cmBvEeR7mjenNo-PKyFSAXDGRGlrx4FHsBEn_L_TOl3hM3uvAnBSZHHj52QpwYnSWrwc8WO= EM0sW-WHtW8JDTeL3o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 40817558 41267567 42257496 44237351 44587283 44747124
44797089 44607048 44146998 43776984 43257045 42577077
41467167 41237225 41187286 40497484 40817558=20


=3D =3D =3D
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