ACUS11 KWNS 122118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122118=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-122345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Areas affected...much of southwest Georgia and parts of the Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122118Z - 122345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out over the next
couple hours, from the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a dryline roughly bisecting AL
and extending into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front
from southern AL into northern FL. Relatively cool air remains in
place over the TLH area, with warming noted into southwest GA. A
small plume of 66-70 F dewpoints currently exist over the western FL
Panhandle into far southwest GA, resulting in around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE.

Strong wind fields remain over the area, with 850 mb southwesterlies
over 60 kt. Boundary-layer mixing is aiding surface gusts of 25-35
kt with gradual theta-e recovery. Veering and increasing winds with
height still conditionally support supercell and tornado risk, but
overall ascent remains limited. As such, the area is being monitored
for more robust storm initiation over the next few hours. A better
chance at isolated severe storms would exist should the cool air
over the FL Panhandle/southern GA finally modify.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 01/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-MmnWlYZ44sL3MMe0taNtoK8Ig0SjFJl4sanmTkYUXrXCS5VTAMHFr2hPAW0f7_lMHlyVcEkE= Djsl1_CBKhYndnIDx0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30278391 30138447 30278523 30448558 30688568 30998548
31678503 32368460 32438416 32278360 31718334 31118336
30758348 30278391=20


=3D =3D =3D
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