ACUS11 KWNS 121611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121611=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-122015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0054
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Areas affected...southern Mississippi into Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 121611Z - 122015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area from southern and eastern Mississippi into
western and southern Alabama is being monitored for watch potential.

DISCUSSION...A low continues to deepen near the MS/AL border with
associated thunderstorm line segments. This area of storms near the
low has been producing 35-45 kt winds consistently. The air mass to
the east becomes progressively more stable with cooler temperatures
and lower dewpoints. Therefore, a ramp up in storm intensity is not
anticipated over much of northern AL.

Farther south, a warm front intersects the main cold front over
east-central MS, with better moisture spreading northward into
southwest AL and southern MS. Showers are developing in the warm
advection zone, but instability is generally below 1000 J/kg.

It is uncertain how much severe activity will occur over the next
few hours as the upper wave lifts north of the area, veering
low-level winds over the small warm sector and with limited lift.
Warm sector trends will continue to be monitored as destabilization
occurs into southern AL where lift along the warm front could
support a few severe storms.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 01/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5dgkVJkGroViubK3tEAgqB-x8O8r6KyGiJkVTYvkfNMKm5IXKQt5W-xmCRmbEOEfv55AwULK0= CllMfE7KgioKoVtaw4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32308941 32578894 33038836 33568812 34148808 34198791
34038771 33468732 32698699 32298686 31938686 31188718
30858812 30798870 30968926 31508963 32008958 32308941=20


=3D =3D =3D
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