ACUS11 KWNS 121356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121355=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-121530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Areas affected...Central/northern MS...Northeast LA...extreme
southwest TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 10...

Valid 121355Z - 121530Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts and a couple tornadoes will
move eastward through mid morning.

DISCUSSION...A convective line, which earlier produced measured
severe gusts across AR, has shown signs of weakening across far
northern MS into western TN, within an increasingly cool and less
unstable environment. Farther south, convection has evolved into
multiple bands of semi-discrete storms, with occasional stronger
midlevel rotation noted with the strongest cells.=20

While storms across TN may continue to outpace stronger moistening/destabilization, storms across central/northern MS will
continue will have greater access to richer low-level moisture and
modest instability (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). A notable increase in
low-level flow has been noted on the KDGX VWP, with 60-80 kt noted
in the lowest 1-3 km AGL, so any organized storm structures within
this regime will pose a threat for both severe gusts (potentially
65+ kt) and a couple tornadoes.=20

Recent surface observations indicate strong pressure falls
associated with a deepening cyclone near the TN/AR border, which may
help to sustain organized convection into mid/late morning as it
moves northeastward, with some potential for later downstream watch
issuance into parts of northwest AL. Some southward expansion of WW
10 may also be needed to account for increasing convection into
south-central MS.

..Dean/Edwards.. 01/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7w7qRIbozNNAjRA5dMS_fTjpkoFCIi-QSg89Z3oNEDGHn1PcB6bldI530X6MaksiqrG27rEhA= YvhFBfMIYC3Spfro7w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 32159187 33559066 34389016 35139007 35428990 35568948
35358875 35028812 34738793 34068795 33338816 32108892
31778936 31768996 31799051 31829097 31889118 31869144
32159187=20


=3D =3D =3D
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