ACUS11 KWNS 120228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120228=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-120430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Areas affected...Northeast TX...southeast OK...and much of AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 120228Z - 120430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an initial round of strong
to severe thunderstorms, with the primary risks being large hail and
damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage across parts
of southeast OK, northeast TX, and much of AR this evening, largely
aided by strengthening low-level warm advection evident in regional
VWP data and observed 00Z soundings. Per the observed LZK 00Z
sounding and RAP forecast soundings, storms evolving over central AR
are likely elevated, though 50-60 kt of effective shear and a plume
of steep lapse rates overspreading the region are supporting loosely
organized storm structures with occasional midlevel rotation. The
primary concern with this activity will be sporadic marginally
severe hail, though localized clustering could support damaging
winds as well.=20

Farther southwest in northeast TX and southeast OK, a broken band of thunderstorms is evolving where low-level convergence is slightly
stronger ahead of an evolving surface low in OK. Lower 60s dewpoints
are gradually spreading north ahead of these storms (beneath steeper
midlevel lapse rates), suggesting that an evolution to surface-based
convection is possible. Similarly strong deep-layer shear will favor
embedded supercell structures (with an attendant risk of large hail
and damaging winds). However, if this activity can root at the
surface, large clockwise-curved hodographs with strong streamwise
vorticity could conditionally support a tornado or two.=20

Overall, the need for a watch in the short-term is uncertain, though
trends are being monitored. A second round of severe storms is
expected along the cold front later tonight.

..Weinman/Goss.. 01/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6QmMhGq-65yl4bqyScQ1ufno1gbnD8BRY-7ejPC_zSljqegXC2y4XulXeIOa93Lrss9hYCdgp= WFUVtTu5-9RTkiLOJI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 33169558 33739511 34399474 35069465 35529441 35849411
35999344 36049260 35919183 35769133 35509114 34559138
33999171 33669222 33439266 32749456 32769522 32919560
33169558=20


=3D =3D =3D
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