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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0043

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jan 11 16:30:23 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 111630
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111629=20
    NMZ000-AZZ000-112130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0043
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1029 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

    Areas affected...portions of east-central Arizona into far
    west-central New Mexico

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 111629Z - 112130Z

    SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow are possible into the afternoon
    hours. Localized instances of 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates may occur
    with the heaviest snow bands, which may also be accompanied by
    strong wind gusts and reduced visibility. The best chance for higher
    snowfall rates and stronger winds gusts will be in higher terrain
    areas.

    DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is progressing southeast across
    portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin this morning, providing
    some low-level convergence that is supporting an ongoing band of
    snow over central AZ. Deep-layer ascent is expected to increase
    further as a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak overspreads the region,
    supporting convective snow bands (given sub-freezing surface
    temperatures, steep tropospheric lapse rates, and a near-saturated
    700-500 mb layer per 15Z RAP forecast soundings and 16Z
    mesoanalysis). As such, 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates may accompany the
    stronger snow bands later this morning into the afternoon hours. The
    best chance for heavier snow and strong wind gusts with reduced
    visibility will be in the higher terrain areas. Latest HREF guidance
    suggests that heavier snow and stronger winds are most likely in the
    17-22Z period along the AZ/NM border.

    ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7QipWQ34Cck-J8_EPise_CtS899zsyrNRpKgVsWgbnhFNV1u_ZtFiIpdHRcl06gio73gw56sp= L7y5JqdXqle0Ks-lAg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 33890810 33460791 33240832 33160868 33210927 33390994
    33721076 34431155 34841165 35081140 34560999 34120860
    33890810=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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