ACUS11 KWNS 100025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100025=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-100200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

Areas affected...Middle Atlantic

Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...

Valid 100025Z - 100200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7 continues.

SUMMARY...Gusty winds, along with the threat for brief tornadoes,
are expected with convection this evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong, large-scale forcing is spreading across the
middle Atlantic early this evening ahead of an approaching trough.
An expansive corridor of pre-frontal convection has developed in
response to this forcing, currently extending from southeast VA,
south across the eastern Carolinas. Surface dew points will struggle
to rise above 63-65F across the warm sector which is limiting
instability within a poor lapse rate environment. Latest diagnostic
data suggests the only meaningful buoyancy is located across
southeast NC where MLCAPE is on the order of 500 J/kg; although,
offshore buoyancy is likely considerably higher (in excess of 1000
J/kg). Radar data supports this with strong, long-lived rotating
updrafts noted about 50 mi offshore. These supercells are advancing
northeast, but have weakened a bit as they spread inland where
buoyancy is weaker. Even so, strong shear is expected to maintain
these updrafts as they track across the eastern portions of NC this
evening. Damaging gusts can be expected with the organized
convection and some risk for brief tornadoes continue, especially
with the supercells near the higher buoyancy.

..Darrow.. 01/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!84POZXHWCudZ79ScTjOIUMJIzSxaLtxF97ak-kneM4fmQUkiC2uSTA-IFgorcCtNF60tG_0lH= -cbjgv_PScTGMt9fBs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34027805 36837747 36547554 34627607 34027805=20


=3D =3D =3D
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