ACUS11 KWNS 091506
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091505=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-091630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0028
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0905 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle into north FL and
south-central GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 4...

Valid 091505Z - 091630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for embedded QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds
will continue this morning.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms, with occasional
embedded supercell structures, is ongoing this morning across parts
of the FL Panhandle into south/central GA. Multiple CC
minima/tornadic circulations have been observed with this line over
the past several hours. Modifying the 12Z TLH sounding for current
surface observations yields only weak MLCAPE. Still, rapid low-level
moisture advection is occurring ahead of the line, and even modest
daytime heating should allow for weak destabilization downstream.
Current expectations are for the tornado threat to continue eastward
across south-central GA and north FL, as area VWPs show extremely
strong low-level flow (1 km southerly winds in excess of 70 kt from
KTLH) and 0-1 km SRH approaching 600 m2/s2 that will easily support
embedded QLCS circulations. Straight-line severe/damaging winds
around 60-75 mph will also remain a threat with the line given the
strength of the low-level flow.

..Gleason.. 01/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9S39K0IFWwl2vV3RagPmW6bIegnSmdepYHlW1r23REqL8H68AlWcCogOTmF8tgk0jGLF72tOF= jfZPogcMUTp0rLaW_g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 29718528 31998449 32288331 32058257 31408249 30198264
29758290 29588342 29908397 29858433 29608471 29528499
29598526 29718528=20


=3D =3D =3D
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