ACUS11 KWNS 090844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090844=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-091045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

Areas affected...from far southeast Louisiana into southern Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...

Valid 090844Z - 091045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest tornado risk remains within the warm sector,
currently from far southeast Louisiana into southwest Alabama and
the western Florida Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...A prominent cold front and squall line continue to move
rapidly east across far southern MS and southeast LA, and this
should move offshore before 10Z. East of the cold front, strong
southerly winds continue to aid airmass recovery from the MS Coast
into southwest AL and the western FL Panhandle, with dewpoints over
67 F common. This is contributing to over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Meanwhile, area VWPs show extreme low-level shear, with 0-1 km SRH
of 300-500 m/s, the strongest values being along the warm front.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some supercells, continue to
develop and move north over the northern Gulf of Mexico and into the
western FL Panhandle and southern AL. This region is near the warm
front, and the influx of higher surface theta-e air values may
support an increasing tornado risk over the next several hours. The
very strong shear could yet yield a strong tornado.

..Jewell.. 01/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-wLdcbiLj6PWsrhbiaHCVq8eqmuJaA5OMHZ81FM8kKzVBzADPamdNg-M53cu3hw904J4pnZ2q= M0NzJPVDwxG7tuecJM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 29508982 30228942 30758907 31368870 31568857 31758805
31808736 31608683 31058635 30408640 30358663 30268717
30178769 30208826 30148850 30158870 30068875 29808875
29578893 29428917 29348940 29328957 29378976 29508982=20


=3D =3D =3D
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