ACUS11 KWNS 082106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082105=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-082200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

Valid 082105Z - 082200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms have developed along the warm
front over southeast TX.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows the surface warm front
now extends roughly from Trinity/Polk counties of southeast TX into
Beauregard and Jefferson Davis Parishes of southwest LA. Multiple
small supercells storms have formed in vicinity of the front to the
east of CLL, where there have been a few recent tornado reports. It
is unclear how much farther northeast these storms can remain
surface-based, as they cross the warm front into a more stable
low-level environment. Other similar storms may form across WW #1
through the early evening, given the very strong low-level shear
profiles and favorable thermodynamics.

To the southwest, strong storms have formed along the approaching
cold front. This activity will move into the HOU metro area in the
next hour or two, with some tornado risk. However, linear forcing
mechanisms suggest hail/wind might be the primary threat.

..Hart.. 01/08/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-di6HkbUzm2ItnSwAAmaXcttEIBz8mMkSxqOYTjAsEb4Q6jP53hoDNDIC6xI1DLEbscMuNEJN= _e2NTwxv50c1xhaKqU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 30179693 31249505 31259362 30639146 29399099 29149159
29499328 29389475 29129612 28949706 29069752 29429750
30179693=20


=3D =3D =3D
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