ACUS11 KWNS 081128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081127=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-081730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Raton Mesa of northeast NM...far
western KS

Concerning...Blizzard=20

Valid 081127Z - 081730Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour are expected
to begin between 13-15 UTC on a localized basis. Surface gusts will
rapidly increase this morning (into the 35-60 mph range) and
coincide with more widespread 1 inch per hour snowfall rates. These
conditions will lead to substantially reduced visibilities and
result in blizzard conditions beginning during the late morning
(15-18 UTC).

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a powerful mid-level
shortwave trough moving east across the Sangre de Cristos early this
morning. Deep-layer forcing for ascent will continue to overspread
the central High Plains as the column saturates early this morning.=20
Light to moderate snow will transition to localized heavy snow
(i.e., rates around 1 inch per hour) beginning in the 13-15 UTC
period according to the latest SREF and HREF model guidance. Heavy
snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour will become widespread
during the 15-18 UTC period as both upslope flow strengthens south
of the Arkansas River and deep-layer ascent associated with the
cyclone intensifies.

Low-level flow is forecast to intensify markedly during the morning
with 250 m AGL flow increasing from less than 10 kt to 50 kt while
contributing to very strong gusts and substantially reduced
visibilities. The strengthening of surface gusts into the 35-60 mph
range is expected to coincide with the onset of more widespread 1
inch per hour snowfall rates and result in blizzard conditions
during the 15-18 UTC period.

..Smith.. 01/08/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!60zS9sFRvPIMrevLyLH7xrQHd_FtpYkkfKIR-R8XPwbCa5z6wSv_H3zikRru4JH4QJjeayVVe= _OQ_N50ZFoRuHCeh8w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 38710125 38340135 37440205 37040272 36740375 36740440
36970460 37230463 37630451 37800420 37730384 37760298
38130244 38770186 38970153 38880133 38710125=20


=3D =3D =3D
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