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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0006

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jan 6 16:47:55 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 061647
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061647=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-062145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0006
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1047 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

    Areas affected...Central/Southern PA...Eastern WV
    Panhandle...Western/Central MD...Far Northern VA

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 061647Z - 062145Z

    SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across the region
    over the next several hours. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across
    much of the area, with localized 2"/hr rate possible, particularly
    across south-central PA.

    DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude
    shortwave trough over eastern TN, moving quickly northeastward.
    Regional radar imagery shows a large area of precipitation across
    the Mid-Atlantic and into southern portions of the Northeast, within
    the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave. Attendant low-level flow
    is forecast to strengthen over the next several hours as the
    shortwave continues northeastward. Additionally, the attendant
    surface low, which is currently over south-central NC, is expected
    to deepen over the next few hours as it moves northeastward across
    central NC and southeast VA.=20

    These factors will result in an area of strong low-level
    frontogenesis over VA, with associated lift focused into
    central/southern PA, the eastern WV Panhandle, western/central MD,
    and far northern VA. Most of this area is currently experiencing
    moderate snow, but snowfall rates are expected to increase over the
    next few hours as the evolution described above occurs. Rates around
    1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with some areas
    experiencing 2"/hr, particularly south-central PA where banding
    appears most likely. Highest rates are expected to be centered
    around 20Z, with rates then likely diminishing over this area as the
    shortwave continues northeastward.

    ..Mosier.. 01/06/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_NKhaRnEwVPR27YduQCEndnyTXDuKEJB79_6KiOswqg6DB7RqpGsH0ym3DKUbWimb-0rDGtEC= ZHFL0NP83xEluiGX2g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 39638023 40407968 41007844 41017668 40397599 39607652
    38947765 38657885 38988003 39638023=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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