ACUS11 KWNS 232033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232032=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-232300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NM and west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 232032Z - 232300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for hail and strong to severe winds may
increase this afternoon as thunderstorms develop and move eastward.
Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Some clearing of low clouds has recently been noted
across parts of west TX and southeastern NM as a shortwave trough
pivots eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico. As of
2030Z, surface temperatures have generally warmed into 60s where
this clearing has occurred. Modest low-level moisture continues to
stream northward/westward ahead of a cold front across the southern
High Plains, with low to mid 50s surface dewpoints prevalent.
Cooling mid-level temperatures acting in concert with the modest
daytime heating/moistening of the boundary layer will support around
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level southwesterly flow of 50-60 kt
associated with the upper trough will foster strengthening
deep-layer shear through the afternoon and evening across eastern NM
into west TX. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will easily support
organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells.

Current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in
coverage and intensity along a weak surface lee trough and the
mountains of west TX over the next couple of hours. Initially more discrete/supercellular development should pose some threat for
severe hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) given the favorable
deep-layer shear and cold temperatures aloft. Later this afternoon
and evening, upscale growth into small clusters and more linear
structures is anticipated. As this mode transition occurs, strong to
locally severe wind gusts around 55-65 mph appear possible where
sufficient boundary-layer instability exists to support
surface-based thunderstorms. Although the muted daytime heating and thermodynamic environment cast some uncertainty on the overall
magnitude and coverage of the severe hail/wind threat, observational
trends will be closely monitored for possible watch issuance in the
next couple of hours.

..Gleason/Hart.. 12/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_EnRlmEB1gQL_1dt-SgLxVBAJTu52fMZ2cNg5ZrPYa7WGXEAbZaECKV2JOPEcbvMpt_cC3GIc= XcaR044FOoM82Hdqec$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31290471 32290430 33100353 33880259 33940177 33740143
33360123 32890117 31170132 29850198 29640263 29150284
28890313 29240416 29780470 30400484 31290471=20


=3D =3D =3D
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