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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2340

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Dec 23 20:15:43 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 232014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232014=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-232215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2340
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0214 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023

    Areas affected...Far east-central NM into the TX Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 232014Z - 232215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A short, low-topped line segment in east-central New
    Mexico should expand in coverage as it progresses along the northern
    periphery of the surface-based instability plume. A brief, weak
    tornado and sporadic wind gusts of 45-60 mph will be possible.
    Severe thunderstorm watch issuance in this region is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A narrow short-line, low-topped segment around 110 km
    in length as of 20Z should increase in areal extent as it impinges
    on the northern periphery of the weak buoyancy plume characterized
    by 500-1000 J/kg from the TX South Plains to the Pecos Valley.
    Immediately ahead of this line, surface dew points remain 5-8 F
    lower across the remainder of east-central NM before increasing into
    northwest TX. However, surface temperatures have struggled to budge
    beyond the mid to upper 50s across northwest TX amid downstream
    rain/clouds within the low-level warm conveyor. Despite this
    instability profile, VWP data from FDX indicates low-level backing
    immediately ahead of the line, resulting in an enlarging low-level
    hodograph. Given the otherwise favorable deep-layer southwesterly
    shear profile, attempts at mesovortex formation should occur capable
    of producing sporadic strong gusts and a brief tornado.

    ..Grams/Hart.. 12/23/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!53wz-xdc6LZwk1FyaqU0bIX_DsdaHxdpwQknm8uK3DPUju1t5LRkGzTkNxLKM0kFR4BzyON9T= UI7oifPC2bRVoYioqM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 34820388 35420300 35810195 35940135 35890087 35590040
    35220028 34790041 34490062 34270106 34130174 34090277
    33940370 34820388=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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