ACUS11 KWNS 172352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172351=20
NCZ000-180145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 722...

Valid 172351Z - 180145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 722 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated supercell structures and a brief
tornado continues.

DISCUSSION...Radar loops continue to show relatively shallow/weak
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving ashore across eastern NC.=20
This activity is to the east of a deep surface low centered off the
coast near the NC/SC border, in a regime of very strong low-level
winds and vertical shear. The VAD profile at ILM is showing a
rapidly weakening shear profile/hodograph as the surface low moves
east and as a mid-level dry slot approaches, but the VAD at MHX
remains very intense with 1km AGL winds over 60 knots. Stronger
low-level moisture and instability remains just offshore and may
never make it very far inland. But transient supercell structures
may develop along the near-shore baroclinic zone, posing a risk of
brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.=20=20

Tornado watch 722 is scheduled to expire at 01z. Current
indications are that coastal counties of far-eastern NC may need to
remain in a watch for a few hours beyond 01z.

..Hart.. 12/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9oFXF5mWOeEvdyC4eNKsCBUI2BQ2CnU3xxnGPTBmjEiV9io_eyDl4JbUnzMkn3XYMupxaFYVK= kpbeuZ311xbBrYoeJs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON 34457808 36117660 35997526 35107547 34417657 33787770
34457808=20


=3D =3D =3D
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