ACUS11 KWNS 102154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102153=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-102330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2329
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Virginia and eastern North
Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 721...

Valid 102153Z - 102330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 721 continues.

SUMMARY...A localized severe threat continues across portions of
Tornado Watch 721.

DISCUSSION...Latest observational data suggests two main corridors
that remain at least locally favorable for severe thunderstorms
across Tornado Watch 721. Off the Carolinas coast, a band of showers
and thunderstorms driven by low/midlevel warm advection are
streaming northward toward coastal NC, and some of these storms have
exhibited transient organization given ample low/deep-layer shear.
While instability over land is marginal, there is still some
potential that this activity could affect immediate coast areas and
pose a brief tornado risk and/or damaging-wind threat.=20

Farther north from north-central NC into southeast VA, the AKQ VWP
is sampling 50 kt near 1 km AGL, which is yielding strong low-level
shear with ample low-level hodograph curvature. Similarly, weak
instability has generally limited updraft strength, though subtle
backing of the low-level flow and substantial pressure falls may
provide some focus for thunderstorms into the evening. If any storms
can root at the surface, a tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Weinman.. 12/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8XdOfRbllJkIDw6iigbV28Gyln7NywBS4Vrn4LJ__O0eYPIjxv3LqZYzZSlOB6wPKwgjciHfi= nW8QlpymHHWjSKs6F8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34417734 34547787 34797820 35577832 37237781 37697742
37737707 37617653 37047598 36137576 35397598 34897616
34597655 34417734=20


=3D =3D =3D
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