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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2326

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Dec 10 18:05:55 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 101805
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101805=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-102030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2326
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1205 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern NC...northeastern SC...and
    southeast VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 101805Z - 102030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Monitoring portions of eastern NC, northeastern SC, and
    southeastern VA for a gradual increase in severe-storm potential
    this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data across portions of eastern NC,
    northeastern SC, and the coastal waters indicates northward-moving
    clusters of mainly disorganized storms. This activity is likely
    being driven by low/midlevel warm advection and coastal convergence
    amid strong low-level south-southwesterly flow (per MHX/LTX VWP
    data). Through the afternoon, continued boundary-layer positive
    theta-e advection should destabilize the coastal air mass amid
    filtered diurnal heating in cloud breaks. The increasing
    surface-based instability (albeit weak), coupled with strengthening low/deep-layer shear -- characterized by increasingly large
    clockwise-turning low-level hodographs -- will favor a gradual
    increase in severe-storm potential through the afternoon. A couple
    tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main concerns.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ytP4D_JJuIxD8FavuvF_1LiN0cxwnGWdeykFFPlpAc512MsfVmhI4TJ2VLIxFxZWbguTdb7X= bmq8XgBrRRn8TKGm5A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 35047789 34717867 34387909 33997918 33677905 33617865
    33747796 33987750 34587645 35127549 35917541 36497561
    36767578 36867626 36807675 36307698 35577722 35047789=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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