ACUS11 KWNS 101540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101540=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-101745-

Mesoscale Discussion 2324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0940 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Areas affected...Extreme south GA into north FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 101540Z - 101745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for a brief tornado and/or locally damaging
wind may persist through late morning, with an increasing threat
possible across parts of the northern Florida Peninsula by early
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS is moving across south GA into the eastern FL
Panhandle this morning, with a possible brief tornado recently noted
near the FL/GA border, near where a supercell was earlier absorbed
into the line. In the short term, this QLCS will be moving eastward
into an increasingly stable low-level environment, and some
weakening appears likely. However, relatively favorable low-level
and deep-layer shear (as noted on the 12Z TLH sounding and recent
VWPs from KVAX) amid seasonably rich low-level moisture may continue
to support a threat for a brief tornado and/or locally damaging wind until/unless a more definitive weakening trend commences.=20

Some heating has been noted across northern portions of the FL
Peninsula, and somewhat more substantial destabilization is possible
by early afternoon in this area. Also, some increase in low-level
flow is possible with time, due to the increasing influence of an
approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough currently near the
upper TX coast. This could result in some rejuvenation of the QLCS
near the FL coastal bend into the northwest peninsula, with a
continued threat of a brief tornado or two and locally damaging
wind.=20

The need for a new watch this morning remains uncertain, due to the
anticipated short-term weakening trend, but watch issuance will be
possible by early afternoon into parts of the northern FL Panhandle,
depending on short-term convective and destabilization trends.

..Dean/Guyer.. 12/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-D4l3pZCjp4cSXfCJ3i3ZSZxi8Pleh2zLvDLEy-pHkrIeUHCGEH2q37Y5cQSeKSqHidmVvyIp= 5kV4m694qbrqqCZbck$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 31008392 30968348 30948313 30288268 29888260 29458273
29298289 29288304 29388357 29548389 29618419 29688467
29708478 30188463 31008392=20


=3D =3D =3D
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