ACUS11 KWNS 100230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100229=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-100430-

Mesoscale Discussion 2315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0829 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Areas affected...Central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 716...

Valid 100229Z - 100430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 716 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornadoes and damaging winds will remain possible through
the evening. Discrete storms ahead of the cold front would pose a
higher tornado threat, but their maturation is uncertain. A
downstream watch is likely for parts of central/southern Alabama in
the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to become more linear along the
cold front advancing through Mississippi into northwestern Alabama.
This general trend should continue as the main synoptic trough
continues east/southeast. A few more discrete elements have been
noted in east-central Mississippi. While the longevity of these
storms is not certain, they would pose a greater tornado threat and
may reach the edge of WW 716 sooner should they mature. That being
said, the cold front will likely be the zone for severe storms this
evening. Objective mesoanalysis and the KBMX VAD suggest sufficient
low-level shear for tornadoes. Furthermore, an increase in low-level
winds is expected in parts of Alabama later tonight which would
promote an increase in QLCS tornado potential. Damaging winds can
also be expected, particularly with any QLCS circulations.

A new tornado watch is likely for parts of central into southern
Alabama within the next couple of hours. The exact timing of the
watch will be somewhat dependent on whether cellular convection
matures ahead of the line.

..Wendt.. 12/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8cWDs-jORnpSEU6rxLNrLcoatVqxycp-07Dpo2xKbJks7YY9xyFVU6CtmyjXcDbZpDFN0sf3T= uQSwOCG8QcLTP9R_rM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31819169 33218976 33748895 33828837 33828740 33788681
33738597 33458570 32348645 31468812 31298867 31329034
31349125 31549167 31819169=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)