ACUS11 KWNS 092356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092356=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-100130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Areas affected...Central Mississippi into west-central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 716...

Valid 092356Z - 100130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 716 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail
will continue into the evening. Storm coverage along the front will
eventually increase and become more linear. Damaging winds and
embedded QLCS circulations/tornadoes will become the predominant
threats with time.

DISCUSSION...Convection in the western portions of WW 716 have
largely remained a broken line with embedded supercells. More
discrete storms remain in southeastern Mississippi which developed
along a mesoscale boundary earlier in the afternoon. Area VAD
profiles as well as forecast soundings suggest a continued threat of
tornado, large hail, and damaging wind gusts into the evening. As
the synoptic trough continues to dig southeastward and amplify, more
convection should develop along the cold front in Mississippi.
Though storms would be more linear, sufficient low-level shear
should exist for a QLCS tornado threat.

A more organized supercell storm currently in Jasper County, MS,
continues east-northeastward. Given the more modest deep-layer
ascent and marginally less favorable thermodynamics in Alabama, it
is not certain how far north/east the storm will progress. Should
this supercell persist, as can occur even in less than ideal
environments, low-level shear will improve later this evening in
parts of central Alabama. This activity would pose a greater tornado
threat should that scenario occur.

..Wendt.. 12/09/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_V72t8UMzHkwFjEeInxh6cZE4BhbDRSvxygDVTTtcDiKORTx5zmGb8etDzWVi7r5lvbwhYed5= RJ-oS17sBMrxZgBs54$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 31509047 31499154 31659180 32109167 33179105 33699022
34138853 34198737 34108693 33868680 33488694 32858726
32628759 31938871 31569007 31509047=20


=3D =3D =3D
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