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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2309

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Dec 9 22:43:52 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 092243
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092242=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-100015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2309
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0442 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

    Areas affected...Far eastern Texas into central/northern Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 092242Z - 100015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds
    into the evening. The tornado threat is expected to be more
    marginal. A small severe thunderstorm watch may be needed depending
    on convective trends in the next hour.

    DISCUSSION...A few discrete storms have formed along the cold front
    in far eastern Texas and west-central Louisiana. The strongest storm
    in Natchitoches Parish has exhibited supercell characteristics with
    a TBSS on KSHV/KPOE radars indicating potential for large hail. The
    18Z LCH sounding showed some cooling aloft and modest erosion of a
    inversion around 800 mb. That warm layer aloft may hinder updrafts
    until stronger forcing arrives later his evening. The greatest
    threat for large hail will likely be over the next few hours when
    storms are more discrete. Storm coverage will increase and the mode
    will become more linear with time as the synoptic trough digs into
    the Southeast this evening/overnight. At that time, damaging winds
    would become the primary threat. Potential for tornadoes should
    remain more limited with low-level shear and hodograph curvature
    being rather modest per area VAD profiles. A small severe
    thunderstorm watch may need to be considered, but coverage and
    intensity may not increase until storms move farther east. Trends
    will be monitored.

    ..Wendt/Goss.. 12/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8wGHtYMy_9kSjWlAyfJJNUmvuTHSX1Q-u5iULalkhohobk77IMp3sNnvVpa9G7nMVv2orPSlX= b9Xira719BeSUORKWA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 30299404 30419443 30839455 31719415 32419314 32749260
    32699236 32219211 31109213 30729240 30429305 30279397
    30299404=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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