ACUS11 KWNS 092045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092045=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-092215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2306
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Areas affected...Northern AL into middle/eastern TN and eastern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 092045Z - 092215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase as storms approach from
the west. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 3-4 PM CST.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells is currently ongoing from
southern KY into western TN and northwest MS. While instability is
currently quite limited from eastern TN into southeast KY, some moistening/destabilization is expected with time through late
afternoon, aided by rather strong southwesterly low-level flow above
the surface. With longer-lived supercells already ongoing, organized
convection may spread eastward even as the environment becomes
somewhat less favorable, with a continued threat of a couple
tornadoes and locally damaging wind.=20

In addition to ongoing convection, additional development is
possible ahead of the approaching cold front across parts of
northern AL into southern middle TN, as a low-level warm advection
regime gradually increases into this evening. Supercells may evolve
out of this activity as well, with an attendant threat of all severe hazards.=20

Given the concerns described above, Tornado Watch issuance is likely
for parts of the region by 3-4 PM CST.

..Dean/Guyer.. 12/09/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8SQaFsUxloSa6JXrXGT_gQpdLVC4lcmbd6zf2TPcTdhhuUnTU_RchIgHtJm7KeGObsbHuCdQu= k1mA1ugJFMVLit0dew$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON 34468794 34838770 35668610 37558491 37698475 37728440
37548402 37438395 37148407 36618437 35838485 34948574
34358634 34468794=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)