ACUS11 KWNS 020535
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020535=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-020700-

Mesoscale Discussion 2300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023

Areas affected...Southeast LA...coastal MS/AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 713...

Valid 020535Z - 020700Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 713 continues.

SUMMARY...A brief tornado and marginally severe wind/hail will
remain possible into the early morning as convection gradually
shifts east from southeast LA to coastal portions of MS/AL.

DISCUSSION...A pair of lower-end supercells have recently progressed
into the Lake Pontchartrain vicinity, with additional deep
convection lingering to the southwest in the northern
Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish area. A limited severe threat should
persist with this convection as it moves east towards the MS/AL
coast. Surface-based instability has been subsiding amid overturning
and stronger buoyancy relegated to the western Gulf, with MLCAPE
holding at or below 500 J/kg east of LA. As such, the overall
thermodynamic environment should gradually become less favorable for
sustaining supercell structures. In addition, downstream low-level
wind profiles as sampled by the KMOB VWP are still fairly modest,
although an uptick remains progged during the early morning. This
setup will yield a low-probability severe threat continuing east of
WW 713, with uncertainty over whether another watch is needed.

..Grams.. 12/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6-yxPdKKO9Nmv87V7xaWt3aBAUHj3znrUG1neVE2fUSPn7pXrghw3MpH-sMh-1BCgvp5bMz6O= U2lQXeOHBLIMdT7O_U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 29539117 30179017 30358996 30668935 30798844 30908777
30588742 30438742 30348745 30198777 29898884 29408993
29299093 29539117=20


=3D =3D =3D
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