ACUS11 KWNS 020013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020013=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-020145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2298
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0613 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Outlook upgrade=20

Valid 020013Z - 020145Z

SUMMARY...A level 2-Slight Risk will be added with the upcoming 01Z
outlook across the central Gulf Coast for the potential of a couple
tornadic storms tonight. In the short-term, a gradual increase in
the threat for a low-probability brief tornado and locally strong
gusts of 40-55 mph should occur across coastal/southern LA through
late evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm cluster ongoing south of the mouth of the
Sabine River should eventually spread northeast towards coastal
southern LA. Strong speed shear in the mid to upper-level wind
profile will be conducive to updraft rotation, and a few
transient/embedded supercells should evolve as the cluster
progresses inland amid a modestly unstable air mass characterized by
MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. Low-level wind profiles are currently the
limiting factor to a more robust severe threat per time-series of
KLCH/TMSY VWP data and the 00Z LIX sounding. 18Z ECMWF and NAM
guidance along with the 21Z RAP suggest that low-level flow will
increase, especially after 06Z. As such, confidence is low in
whether an appreciable tornado threat can be realized this evening,
suggesting that watch potential is unlikely in the near-term. But as
low-level SRH increases with enlarging hodographs, observational
data will be closely monitored for the possibility of a tornado
watch later tonight.

..Grams/Smith.. 12/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_d5rMgLxg0xoZpN_XlNHvnlQrT-9-4rHwgM12Lp1MWWHnYZY0mMAsbYAE-LiIJiMrbMKkZTGF= 5CIcbQVGVya9FE6O-g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29609272 30039220 30868856 30898775 30648746 30268779
29258982 29149168 29609272=20


=3D =3D =3D
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