ACUS11 KWNS 010531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010531=20
LAZ000-010730-

Mesoscale Discussion 2295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Areas affected...Coastal southwest/south-central LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 010531Z - 010730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A low-probability threat for a brief tornado along with
isolated strong gusts of 40-55 mph will likely persist overnight,
but within a spatially confined area of a single parish or two at
any one time that should gradually shift east.

DISCUSSION...Attempts at brief mesovortex formation appeared to have
a relative peak during the 03-04Z time frame before thunderstorm
clusters became more oriented from southwest to northeast across far
southwest LA. This type of orientation within the low-level warm
theta-e advection regime should support a rather limited spatial
extent of brief tornado potential at any one time during the early
morning. The overlap of upper 60s surface dew points within
warm-sector inflow where surface winds have not yet veered appears
spatially small, and is presently confined to eastern Cameron
Parish. With convection likely regenerating in this
southwest-northeast orientation through much of the night, this
favorable warm-sector inflow region and resultant brief tornado
threat should slowly shift east along the coastal parishes of
southwest to south-central LA.

..Grams/Smith.. 12/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6aV3py7XADP113OAShnmISGIs7so8QVS3htOuDJEBVp6UO_tjFyAS1-Z-4XVQCH59mZ8vBOP4= f8RcucgPmZTL-AUPoU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30179264 30229208 30159165 30049133 29849112 29589112
29369128 29399174 29529284 29769315 29929313 30179264=20


=3D =3D =3D
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