ACUS11 KWNS 302153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302152=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-302315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Areas affected...Parts of east-central/southeast TX into extreme
southwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 302152Z - 302315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado and locally damaging gusts may
still evolve late this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection persists this afternoon near the upper TX
coast, while storms have also recently developed near the western
edge of deeper moisture across parts of east-central TX. Thus far,
convection has struggled to become organized, despite the presence
of rich low-level moisture and favorable wind profiles. This is
likely due to widespread cloudiness across the region, with weak
low-level lapse rates where convection is ongoing.=20

While MLCINH is not prohibitive for surface-based storms (largely
due to the rich low-level moisture), the short-term potential for
organized storms remains uncertain, with a continued tendency for
convection to remain slightly elevated as it moves through a poor
lapse rate environment where clouds remain entrenched. However, with
favorable deep-layer shear and 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 (greater
closer to the coast) across the region, a transient supercell and/or
a stronger line segment cannot be ruled out through the remainder of
the afternoon, with an attendant threat of a tornado and/or locally
damaging gusts.=20

With the threat expected to remain rather isolated through the
afternoon, short-term watch issuance is unlikely. Some uptick
remains possible sometime this evening, especially into far
southeast TX/southwest LA, and trends will continue to be monitored
for an increase in storm organization/intensity, given the favorable
wind profiles and low-level moisture in place.

..Dean.. 11/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7FiDfPHNqNlT-lRbcvmfJw5-j6LpC1x3a9CrGmg6aNW93YKqFMwXl3rVuhRBmprKf_3Lzu7CA= lbnQ1EJ_r2KxhMifiM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30489664 32059641 32109583 31679523 30979508 30279356
29919326 29739332 29579367 29409414 29149461 28929499
28649542 28529567 28529582 28579589 28939594 29239603
29479636 29879670 30389666 30489664=20


=3D =3D =3D
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