ACUS11 KWNS 301759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301759=20
TXZ000-302000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Areas affected...Southeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 301759Z - 302000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The tornado threat may gradually increase with time
through the day. Eventual watch issuance is possible, though timing
is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing across parts of
southeast TX within a low-level warm-advection regime, with recent
satellite and radar trends indicating an increase in storm intensity
southwest of Galveston Bay. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are gradually
streaming northward across the region, though widespread cloudiness
and increasing precipitation will continue to limit heating and
destabilization through the afternoon.=20

The timing and extent of surface-based supercell development this
afternoon remain uncertain, and may continue to be limited by weak
low-level lapse rates and buoyancy. However, it remains possible
that consolidation of the stronger ongoing elevated convection may
result in transient supercell development, and there is also some
potential for a supercell or two to develop offshore and move inland
later this afternoon. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear (as
noted on the TIAH/THOU VWPs) will support a conditional tornado risk
if any mature supercells can evolve with time. Tornado watch
issuance is possible sometime this afternoon, if observational
trends begin to support imminent supercell potential.

..Dean/Thompson.. 11/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7NF-diBDq5ElHPXY0jZW8eHztkZhVcOzv3Yjv_FI26dLSBZ1IHCiPHQkyScKfErkxdc_ulI2I= Kd_bU8fVeUjrDRAnv0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...

LAT...LON 28639647 29129651 29409613 29869520 30139443 29829409
29559411 29319446 29099484 28849533 28689568 28549599
28439619 28369631 28639647=20


=3D =3D =3D
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