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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2289

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Nov 28 07:16:24 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 280716
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280716=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-281115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2289
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0116 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

    Areas affected...Western NY...Extreme Northwest PA...Far Northeast
    OH

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 280716Z - 281115Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall, with rates over 2" per hour, are possible
    across the Tug Hill Plateau over the next several hours. Moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall is also anticipated farther south in the
    immediate lee of Lake Erie.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery continues to show a loosely
    organized band of heavy snowfall extending from eastern portions of
    Lake Ontario eastward through Oswego, southern Jefferson, and Lewis
    Counties. Overall organization of this band is expected to improve
    over the next several hours as broad westerly flow across the lake
    persists, and local convergence increases due to strengthening and
    veering of the winds south of the lake. Some strengthening is
    possible with the winds over the lake as well as the more
    west-northwesterly winds north of the lake. Snowfall rates from 1"
    to 2" per hour will continue for the next several hours, likely
    maximizing in the 08Z-10Z time frame, when rates of 2" per hour are
    most likely.

    Farther south, a shorter lake fetch is contributing to a broad areas
    of moderate snowfall in the lee of Lake Erie. Less low-level
    convergence and weaker band organization should keep snowfall rates
    a bit lower here than areas farther north, with rates generally
    expected to maximize around 1" per hour.

    ..Mosier.. 11/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!46bTD5IvL3uetF147lmO6fbfVlbzdLATNAxFO--cIlHLCsT4o_crH7rZQbNONqImz3mlmI7_i= CLL7lwc4C2dt7dfxw0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

    LAT...LON 43587694 43987619 44157546 43557530 42217781 41548055
    41388156 41968137 42697907 43587694=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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