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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2288

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Nov 25 18:59:38 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 251859
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251858=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-260000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2288
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1258 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

    Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma to central Kansas

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 251858Z - 260000Z

    SUMMARY...The potential for periods of heavy snow (snowfall rates
    exceeding 1 inch/hour) will steadily increase through the afternoon
    and early evening hours across northwest OK and southern to central
    KS.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a few surface observations across south-central KS have reported periods of visibility reductions down
    to 0.25 mile, indicative of heavy snowfall rates. Such conditions
    are expected to become more common through the remainder of the
    afternoon and early evening hours. Latest water-vapor imagery shows
    the exit region of the 500 mb jet overspreading the TX/OK Panhandles
    region; concurrently, regional VWP observations have sampled
    strengthening flow in the 1-2 km layer - likely a mass response
    associated with the approaching jet. Consequently, both synoptic and
    mesoscale ascent (isentropic and frontogenetical lift within a warm
    advection regime near 850 mb) appear to be increasing over the
    region. Upstream radar trends support this idea with a gradually
    expanding swath of stratiform precipitation noted over the eastern
    TX Panhandle. This lift/precipitation will shift east through the
    afternoon and evening hours, resulting in gradual change over to
    primarily snow across parts of northwest OK as well as a prolonged
    period of moderate snowfall rates across southern KS. Strong
    mesoscale ascent along the 850 mb baroclinic zone, coupled with weak
    (< 50 J/kg MUCAPE) buoyancy, should result in periods of heavy
    snowfall with rates approaching 1 inch/hour.

    ..Moore.. 11/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ZndMzioA5-vZU2LUq6p-odhmYPN3qe0UPqZ_PPB9IxkrWlqFsDIWgzgpVWxpJZ8fD4yzpRJo= Kg__aYDM8zn4pQ8Qgs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 38279599 36179817 35939855 35819888 35839930 35939963
    36249984 36529987 36809976 39229712 39379682 39329640
    38939575 38619580 38279599=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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