ACUS11 KWNS 251455
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251455=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-251900-

Mesoscale Discussion 2287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 251455Z - 251900Z

SUMMARY...Periods of moderate sleet and freezing rain appear
probable through mid-afternoon across the eastern Texas Panhandle
and northwest Oklahoma. Freezing rain rates up to 0.1 in/hour are
possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations and mPING reports over the past
hour are reporting a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain ongoing
from the I-40 corridor in the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest
OK. Despite temperatures well below freezing across the region,
correlation coefficient data from KVNX suggests a melting layer
remains in place at around 4 kft, or roughly at the 800 mb level.
These observations lend credence to recent RAP forecast soundings,
which suggest that this 1-2 C warm layer will remain in place
through mid-afternoon. Other 12z guidance also suggests a mix of
sleet and freezing rain will persist through at least early
afternoon with some solutions hinting at periods of freezing rain
accumulations up to 0.1 in/hour (though this will be conditional on
realizing freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type, which
remains uncertain based on latest obs). Regardless, the approach of
the main synoptic wave and attendant upper jet, coupled with a
persistent warm advection regime at around 850-800 mb, should favor
additional wintry precip through the afternoon. 700-500 mb lapse
rates near 7 C/km could support weak (< 50 J/kg) MUCAPE, resulting
in embedded areas of moderate freezing rain/sleet rates.

..Moore.. 11/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!98mo-huFTBM6MPEfb0KoQ_ZoSPlntITVhCai_q4uJIPfeKPTZFbQL-9lVEgyXK6qTi40F48yP= oToteKKLjFOfO3oENY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 35490104 35680079 37189856 37289827 37329799 37319767
37179751 36829747 36559768 35439928 35029995 34890025
34870059 34950090 35230111 35490104=20


=3D =3D =3D
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