ACUS11 KWNS 221207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221207=20
NCZ000-221430-

Mesoscale Discussion 2285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221207Z - 221430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop across
parts of eastern North Carolina this morning. The severe threat
should remain marginal, and weather watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...At mid-levels, a trough and an associated speed max,
are located over the central Gulf Coast states. The 80 to 100 knot
mid-level jet will continue to approach the Carolinas over the next
few hours. As a result, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will
gradually strengthen over the Carolinas this morning. At the
surface, a mesoscale low is analyzed over northeastern South
Carolina, with another in northeastern North Carolina. A weakly
unstable airmass is present to the east of this surface trough. This
airmass will slowly destabilize this morning, which will make
conditions more favorable for rotating storms. In addition, the
WSR-88D VWP near Wilmington, North Carolina currently has 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity near 230 m2/s2. As the low-level shear
strengthens ahead of the system, a marginal tornado threat is
expected to develop. This threat should persist throughout the
morning from near the coast of North Carolina inland about 50
statute miles.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 11/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!790sxWcg6Rjpa74RSSDL7KyI6UDyAIKgtB0Q0yYJnG3S8bEVOmFlC7ziYKmmyR4gmDnX1bnd3= HMrERRwzanEh7BoXUw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34957572 34107744 33967803 34057837 34317849 34677823
35747652 36047591 35927550 35447533 34957572=20


=3D =3D =3D
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