ACUS11 KWNS 220729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220728=20
FLZ000-220900-

Mesoscale Discussion 2284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of the FL Big Bend.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 220728Z - 220900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado and isolated damaging gusts are possible
through about 09Z over parts of the FL coastal bend/Big Bend region.
The threat appears too limited in extent and intensity for a watch.

DISCUSSION...A band of showers with widely scattered embedded
thunderstorms extended at 0715Z from south-central GA across
Jefferson County FL, then south-southwestward over Apalachee Bay and
the adjoining northeastern Gulf. Ahead of this activity, a small, northward-narrowing, triangular corridor of favorable boundary-layer
conditions remains, with MLCAPE around 800-1200 J/kg near the coast,
decreasing northward. While activity over GA, and in the eastern FL
Panhandle near the FL/GA line, should move soon into stable air and
remain disorganized, deeper/stronger convection may persist at or
near severe levels over near-coastal counties for another couple
hours before it too runs into substantially more-stable airmass with lower-theta-e trajectories from the peninsula.=20=20

Within that small area, favorable shear exists for both
supercellular and line-embedded/QLCS mesocyclones to form. A
modified 00Z TLH RAOB and model soundings depict around 50 kt
effective-shear magnitudes and 150-250 J/kg effective SRH. As such,
a tornado cannot be ruled out, along with localized damaging gusts.

..Edwards.. 11/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7C2iSkFJ5Jt2WFCkasG5ZVe2ErBjqUAJ5DKGSc7Q9m6b8vSOYG38pqkWU114nDkcOuvUTWPw9= 5YPw11TtY60nhEZg4Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30068412 30318415 30468388 30398337 30198320 29738319
29468330 29528345 29688342 29738360 29848363 30068396
30068412=20


=3D =3D =3D
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