ACUS11 KWNS 212326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212326=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-220200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023

Areas affected...far southeast Alabama...southwest Georgia...Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212326Z - 220200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for an isolated, brief tornado may persist for
another 2 hours or so, from parts of southeast Alabama into
southwest Georgia. Given the short time frame and areal extent of
the threat, a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell is currently ongoing over far
southeast AL, just ahead of a line of storms along a cold front. The
air mass ahead of the front is reasonably unstable to support severe
storms given the shear, but overall large-scale support is dwindling
as the low-level jet shifts northeastward.

In the short term, sufficient instability of 500-1000 J/kg and 0-1
SRH of 150-180 m2/s2 may sustain a localized supercell/tornado risk,
with ongoing activity, with a relatively limited threat corridor
along and east of the cold front.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 11/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-9VwEBOgEzvpYAOU-aFW6Z4WPxE01NVeHpDw-6Hd7z1ztaZP7hEdwxI-_iqnKO1T_BOqEKFLG= bM4pLrAIUy_tbcc21I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 30998608 31468575 32018514 32438451 32548387 32298346
31828348 31098405 30758473 30668533 30798587 30788604
30998608=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)