ACUS11 KWNS 211952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211952=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-212215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Alabama into western Georgia
and the western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211952Z - 212215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts or brief tornadoes cannot be
ruled out with any of the stronger storms that can materialize this
afternoon into early evening. The severe threat will likely be
isolated.

DISCUSSION...Convection is slowly deepening along a line immediately
ahead of a surface cold front that progressing eastward across
central AL. Limited diurnal heating amid low-level warm-air
advection has allowed for scant buoyancy to develop ahead of the
aforementioned convective line. Surface temperatures warming into
the low to mid 70s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints beneath poor
tropospheric lapse rates supports narrow SBCAPE profiles (mainly
below 500 J/kg), with evidence of embedded thin inversion layers
(per latest RAP forecast soundings). While a strong low-level jet is
in place (contributing to enlarged, curved hodographs), the surface
low over the OH Valley should continue to drift northeastward with
time, supporting an eastward shift of the low-level jet and
resultant veering of flow in the surface-850 mb layer. When also
considering the scant buoyancy, the severe threat appears limited.

Nonetheless, there may be a window of opportunity for some of the
stronger convective cells embedded in the line to overlap with
locally higher CAPE before low-level flow veers and hodographs lose
their curvature. For a few hours during the afternoon, some of these
storms may acquire brief/transient low-level rotation. As such, a
couple of damaging gusts or brief tornadoes cannot be completely
ruled out. Nonetheless, the anticipated isolated nature of the
severe threat suggests that a WW issuance will probably not be
needed later today.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 11/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9XppvaUJ_ZwAcDVbzTx3AK6sVH6-Hqe_uXxkLqMlnTGKQNliAJYSWFYZqx-YBXhpI5KxFvXcY= 8gwy12tKYZfKyJBDCw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30348686 32228565 33688445 33938428 34228372 34168303
34018266 33358246 32798247 32388265 31848308 30738362
30158390 29758442 29598498 29678548 30038594 30108602
30348686=20


=3D =3D =3D
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