ACUS11 KWNS 211637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211636=20
FLZ000-211730-

Mesoscale Discussion 2281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211636Z - 211730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two may accompany low-topped supercells
as they approach the FL Panhandle shoreline. The severe threat
should stay isolated over the next couple of hours, so a WW issuance
is not expected in the near-term.

DISCUSSION...Low-topped supercells have developed within the
low-level warm-air-advection axis and are approaching the western FL
Panhandle. Along the coast, strong veering and strengthening of the
low-level wind profile supports enlarged hodographs. While dewpoints
are reaching 70 F along the coast, weak diurnal heating beneath poor tropospheric lapse rates are resulting in thin CAPE profiles (with
SBCAPE struggling to exceed 500 J/kg). As such, the strong low-level
shear may support a brief tornado across the western FL Panhandle,
but the severe threat should remain sparse at best over the next
couple of hours, and a WW issuance not anticipated.

Should more appreciable surface heating occur through the afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front, a relatively more robust severe
threat could materialize. The region will be monitored more
carefully for such a scenario and the need for a WW issuance later
today.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 11/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!78iX00agrC5_iQENpe9xEZCkAbdC42peIWpQjIyT1BYOu32b9gbNMa0cX2iG5mYXTnpf1GF7M= DpgJtpnFyba967As3Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30188678 30668638 30938595 30888533 30428470 29988485
29848538 29908620 30188678=20


=3D =3D =3D
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