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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2276

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 20 21:15:12 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 202115
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202114=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-202315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2276
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

    Areas affected...Central/Southwest MS...Southeast LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 202114Z - 202315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms capable of all severe
    hazards, including tornadoes, will continue eastward into central
    and southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana later this
    afternoon and evening.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, including several supercells, continue
    to evolve eastward over southeast TX and LA, ahead of an approaching upper-level trough and associated cold front. Modest destabilization
    has occurred within the downstream air mass from west-central MS
    into southeast LA. This region is displaced north and east of the
    better low-level moisture over southwest LA, but a large area of mid
    to upper 60s dewpoints exists across south-central and southeast LA.
    This should continue to advect northeastward ahead of the
    approaching upper trough, contributing to further destabilization
    over the next few hours. Low-level flow is also expected to increase
    ahead of this upper trough, with the resulting combination of
    buoyancy and shear contributing to a continued threat for severe
    thunderstorms this evening.=20

    Given the strong shear, primary severe risk is tornadoes, a few of
    which could be strong, with some threat for damaging gusts and/or
    isolated hail as well. A watch will likely be needed within the next
    hour or two to address this severe potential.

    ..Mosier/Gleason.. 11/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8amYJGyIy21rbpKfvQq48EviwDXsE3BwiaKnySSnj3t_ukm3WCWHP8v_h0yuo_jgB3IxGP-DM= B0rzVjiWTWTl-7VEQ4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 31989122 32789080 32969009 32868950 32648917 32308896
    32018889 31728901 31068930 30578977 30379056 30429140
    30809168 31989122=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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