ACUS11 KWNS 202059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202058=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-202200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma and far northeast Texas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 202058Z - 202200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail possible this afternoon across
southeast Oklahoma and far northeast Texas.

DISCUSSION...A pocket of destabilization has occurred near a surface
low in southeast Oklahoma where temperatures have warmed into the
upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. Low-level
convergence associated with this surface low, combined with cool
temperatures aloft and and the aforementioned instability has
provided an environment favorable for scattered storm development
this afternoon. Very strong mid-upper level flow is supporting
rotating updrafts. Therefore, a few of these cells may be capable of
isolated large hail for the next few hours. This threat will persist
for a few hours and wane after sunset with the loss of daytime
heating.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 11/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5HsLp-GBqxthDQLNsJKJctc2zv7ZuuTM7FmyYr08_v8pnn4_4PEtgAFFMARrMG_5si2pdlAEF= j2Mira2tgeREK7po2w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33679530 33869643 34069668 34209674 34659654 35029607
35109531 34849459 33939438 33639446 33599470 33679530=20


=3D =3D =3D
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