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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2274

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 20 20:36:16 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 202036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202035=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-202200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2274
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0235 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast TX...Much of LA

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 711...

    Valid 202035Z - 202200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 711 continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for supercells capable of all severe hazards,
    including strong tornadoes, continues. Greatest near-term tornado
    threat exists from far southeast Texas through west-central and
    central Louisiana.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a complex pattern with
    several different boundaries in place across far southeast TX and LA
    this afternoon. Thunderstorms have been increasing along an axis of
    pre-frontal convergence that exists just of ahead of the
    eastward-progressing cold front. This pre-frontal trough exists
    roughly from the central LA/TX border (about 40 miles southwest of
    SHV) south-southwestward through Liberty County TX. Environment
    ahead of this trough continues to destabilize amid low-level
    moisture advection, with 70 deg F dewpoints in place ahead of this
    axis across southeast TX and southwest LA.=20

    This area of greater low-level moisture is advecting northward,
    coincident with strengthening low-level flow. This strengthening
    low-level flow is contributing to longer low-level hodographs and
    greater storm-relative helicity. As such, an increase in tornadic
    supercells appears possible over the next hour or two, particularly
    from Jasper County TX northeastward into west-central/central LA.

    ..Mosier.. 11/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8tgqKv6q_htN1O83KxPG6Iq8RhZjmKjyarO0gFxtCBbVHzIFQAZd9jNqp7JHpBOq4QGCggR2N= b_cuFTUYljHzK9ucVw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

    LAT...LON 30059255 29829313 29789387 30049456 30529464 31499420
    32119397 32519324 32469247 32279218 31889206 31399201
    30509230 30059255=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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