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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2272

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 20 13:11:43 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 201311
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201311=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-201515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2272
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0711 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

    Areas affected...portions of north TX...southeast OK...and southwest
    AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 201311Z - 201515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail around a half inch to near one inch in
    diameter is possible the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...A deepening field of altocumulus is evident in IR
    imagery this morning across north TX. Based on 12z FWD RAOB, these
    clouds are likely rooted around 600 mb. This indicates increasing
    ascent associated with the approaching upper trough is spreading
    east, and aiding in modest growth over the past hour. Regional 12z
    RAOBs still indicate quite a bit of low-level inhibition, with
    layers of dry air above shallow boundary-layer moisture. Moistening
    and heating through mid to late morning will continue to improve the thermodynamic environment, while large-scale ascent erodes capping.
    In the short term, steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable
    vertical shear may support transient strong cells capable of
    marginally severe hail through around 16z. A severe thunderstorm
    watch is not expected at this time, as initial convection is
    expected to only slowly increase in intensity the next few hours,
    but trends will be monitored closely.

    ..Leitman/Edwards.. 11/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-5G-DE0Qcb5hsUzkudU3TQK1zYDooafzGjsA-bfbsO0dNn5F_mh7YlmqvnVt6_B86B8FolsyA= 2wCtafZ-3M0Iy1fxOY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34179250 33729279 32029513 31449665 31579733 31939779
    32289768 34649587 35089512 35169438 34989351 34409263
    34179250=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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