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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2267

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 28 19:36:31 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 281936
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281936=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-282200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2267
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0236 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of west TX and extreme southeast NM

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 281936Z - 282200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A supercell or two may develop later this afternoon, with
    a threat of isolated large hail and strong/severe gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Cumulus is gradually increasing across parts of the TX
    Trans-Pecos region this afternoon, with recent lightning noted
    across Culberson County. This initial development has been closely
    tied to higher terrain, and this tendency may continue in the short
    term, due to lingering MLCINH and generally weak large-scale ascent
    across the region. While a midlevel shortwave trough will move
    across northern NM later this afternoon and evening, it's influence
    on the effective warm sector across west TX and far southeast NM
    will likely remain limited, and coverage of thunderstorm development
    later this afternoon remains uncertain. However, with MLCAPE
    increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg and favorable deep-layer shear,
    it remains possible that a supercell or two will eventually develop.

    Midlevel lapse rates are rather weak, but with favorably strong
    mid/upper-level flow and deep-layer shear, any mature supercell than
    can develop would pose a threat of large hail in the 1.5-2" range.
    Isolated strong/severe gusts would also be possible. At this time,
    coverage of the severe threat is expected to remain too isolated for
    watch issuance.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 10/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7DvBV7D94Y00hm_a8dvdSLdDCZDzeFWLnvIR0hFhWc8MSAIOwCfLvbl_V6G4pVdW_wB-VPxoo= yznVaTFMLSAW-LQ_N8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30230391 30810423 31880465 32360379 32300329 32150290
    31580265 31120251 30770257 30090276 29840304 29890325
    29980352 30230391=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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