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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2264

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 27 03:22:26 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 270322
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270321=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-270915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2264
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1021 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023

    Areas affected...portions of eastern North Dakota into extreme
    northwestern Minnesota

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 270321Z - 270915Z

    SUMMARY...Occasional instances of heavy snow, including 1-1.5
    inch/hour snowfall rates, are possible tonight across portions of
    eastern North Dakota into extreme northwestern Minnesota.

    DISCUSSION...A pronounced mid-level trough, located over western SD,
    is poised to overspread the eastern Dakotas over the next few hours,
    increasing deep-layer ascent and supporting higher precipitation
    rates across eastern portions of the Northern Plains tonight. At the
    same time, modest northeasterly 850 mb warm-air advection (to the
    northwest of a surface low) over the Upper MS Valley will continue
    to increase low-level lift and moisture ahead of an ongoing snow
    band across central ND and northern SD. Given near saturation at 700
    mb (which is also in proximity to the dendritic growth zone),
    increased deep-layer ascent tonight will promote moderate to heavy
    snow. Some of the latest CAM guidance (i.e. deterministic HRRR and
    HREF- ensemble probabilities) suggests that the best chance for
    1-1.5 inch/hour snowfall rates will be across northeast ND into
    extreme northwest MN in the 05-09Z (Midnight - 4 AM CDT) time frame.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5MzRo5QwfTYBn_3mrv3km7H02aVzpnoIqW-xiC-YPmqHrVOJEMc3heccpvyWRecr5MrPgvxNQ= 3uUxhiIkeWFyKJKod8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 45980148 47280106 48260061 48640015 48939928 49049847
    49039807 49049703 48759676 48229670 47649706 46719865
    46239972 45980045 45980148=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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