ACUS11 KWNS 241507
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241506=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-241730-

Mesoscale Discussion 2257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far northern IA...southern MN...and WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241506Z - 241730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Mainly elevated thunderstorms should pose an isolated hail
threat over the next few hours. Watch issuance is unlikely this
morning.

DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from
parts of far southwestern MN into WI. This convection is largely
related to ascent associated with a west-southwesterly low-level
jet, and modest divergence attendant to an upper-level jet extending
across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A surface front
also extends from far northern IA/southern MN into WI. These
thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated to
the cool side of the surface front. Still, steep mid-level lapse
rates noted on the 12Z MPX sounding (around 7.7 C/km in the 700-500
mb layer) are supporting MUCAPE of 1000-1700 J/kg along/north of the
front. Modest low-level west-southwesterlies quickly strengthen with
height through mid/upper levels based on recent VWPs from area
radars. Corresponding 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear and
elongated, nearly straight hodographs above 3 km AGL should support
updraft organization, including the potential for a supercell or
two. Isolated severe hail generally up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter
will be possible with the more robust cores as this activity spreads east-northeastward over the next couple of hours. The potential for strong/gusty winds is less clear, as poor low-level lapse rates and
generally elevated convection may tend to limit downdrafts from
reaching the surface.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 10/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7JW3-8WLAZQhOmvYfcL4rq7RE1aMH3mXkIrr-or0VGWnYCy4-3m7mueL1EM8B8uwMq6JgrWGj= WlShGC65X5aYsT1OUI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 43429120 43269323 43229490 43319572 43679587 44269496
44689348 44959187 45119098 45319012 45458970 45438879
45078763 44838728 44358751 44268828 44148935 43429120=20


=3D =3D =3D
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