ACUS11 KWNS 240227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240227=20
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240530-

Mesoscale Discussion 2256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0927 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

Areas affected...Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 240227Z - 240530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated supercells may develop in the next 2-3 hours.
These storms will be capable of large hail (1.5-2 in.). A watch is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Subtle signs of lift are evident in parts of west-central/northwest Iowa on IR satellite imagery. The KOAX VAD is
showing the low-level jet at around 40 kts already this evening.
This is expected to increase into the overnight. Lift along a warm
front will eventually support potentially scattered elevated
thunderstorm development within the next 2-3 hours. The 00Z observed
OAX sounding showed very steep mid-level lapse rates. Though more
muted, these lapse rates also extend into Iowa/Minnesota per this
evenings DVN/MPX soundings. Mid/upper-level winds are strong enough
to support long hodographs and 35-40 kt of effective shear. The
strongest storms will be supercellular and capable of large hail
(1.5-2 in.). Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a
watch is possible this evening.

..Wendt.. 10/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7cQqToT-8DRd-SGu2MKl7Es4TF0SdSWkhZXVwQo_0Thg28Y6vWK8DflhTLn5JK6GDFyBWPb58= nAzEbKiqqX7yhg_k04$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 44049223 43919483 43719570 43149635 42389651 41989635
41909551 42159468 42589272 43019151 43539134 43859145
44049223=20


=3D =3D =3D
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