ACUS11 KWNS 201752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201751=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-201945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2254
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023

Areas affected...Southeast GA into eastern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 201751Z - 201945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated damaging gusts and perhaps some
marginal hail are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An area of persistent weak convection with occasional
lightning flashes is moving into parts of southeast GA and eastern
SC early this afternoon. This convection is located within a zone of
weak low-level warm/moist advection, in association with a deep
mid/upper-level trough moving across the eastern CONUS. Some heating
is ongoing downstream of the ongoing convection, where weak
destabilization (MLCAPE potentially increasing above 500 J/kg) and
moderate deep-layer flow/shear may support some increase in storm
intensity and organization this afternoon. A couple modestly
organized cells/clusters may evolve before the ongoing convection
moves offshore, posing a risk of locally damaging gusts and perhaps
some marginal hail. Limited instability and a tendency for storms to
remain relatively weak/low-topped should keep any severe wind/hail
threat isolated.=20

In the wake of the ongoing convection, some clearing has been noted
across east-central GA, where cumulus is increasing along a weak
cold front. A strong storm or two will be possible through mid
afternoon within this area, though weak instability should tend to
limit the severe threat. Another round of potentially strong storms
will be possible late this afternoon across east-central GA into
parts of SC, in association with the upstream midlevel vorticity
maximum approaching the region.

..Dean/Guyer.. 10/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_VxxElPKtpjB8sbm6xKQoLxO6YlGqnqlzBOvqjbJwLBh8LZAmM0uIB6VAKSvZNFgvCRyFophG= i1Xw2Tz2QkKhQ-68DM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON 31118278 31968291 32368295 33208322 33258289 33338167
33518054 33987966 34117897 33897862 33557872 33207888
32677971 32268034 31688098 30948146 30958165 30958212
31028262 31118278=20


=3D =3D =3D
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