ACUS11 KWNS 142029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142029=20
NCZ000-142230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142029Z - 142230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for a brief tornado and locally damaging gusts
may develop late this afternoon into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Despite some cloud breaks/heating across eastern NC
this afternoon, convection has struggled to intensify thus far,
likely due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the presence of a rather
dry midlevel environment (as noted on WV imagery and forecast
soundings). However, some deepening of convection remains possible
late this afternoon into this evening, as a surface cyclone
currently over eastern NC strengthens before moving offshore.

The most favorable wind profiles will be coincident with the
pre-frontal warm-advection regime that is currently overspreading
far eastern NC and the Outer Banks region. 0-1 km SRH of greater
than 200 m2/s2 will conditionally support a brief tornado threat
with any sustained deep convection within this regime. However, very
limited buoyancy may continue to limit updraft intensity until this
regime shifts offshore.=20

Farther west, showers are gradually increasing along a cold front
moving into eastern NC. Low-level winds have veered somewhat
immediately ahead of the front, though some localized backed flow
remains evident near the surface low. It remains unclear as to
whether deep convection will develop near the surface low/front, but
rather strong low/midlevel flow will conditionally support
gusty/damaging winds with any vigorous convection in this region,
and possibly a brief tornado where low-level winds remain locally
backed. At this time, any severe threat is expected to remain
limited in both coverage and magnitude.

..Dean/Thompson.. 10/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Pl7wwAgbEzg8mMYun15iIxb4AxtbpZ1bbCT3KZkSA5wHbQM-Qao2YshX1u5fJlr-Ro5c0_nQ= -tv6nOUKgxiiNiwvJ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON 34997773 35747736 36317680 36327632 36257563 35737548
35217544 35017597 34627639 34557715 34387756 34357769
34677784 34997773=20


=3D =3D =3D
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