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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2252

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 13 22:19:45 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 132219
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132219=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-132345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2252
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0519 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

    Areas affected...east-central Iowa into western Illinois

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 710...

    Valid 132219Z - 132345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 710 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms including the risk of a
    brief/weak tornado appears to be diminishing, and additional watches
    are unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A line of relatively shallow convection currently
    extends from near the surface low over central IA southeastward into
    western IL, along an occluding front and beneath cool temperatures
    aloft with the upper trough. While visible satellite shows clearing
    over southern parts of the area toward St. Louis, instability is
    very weak. Objective analysis show MLCAPE generally less than 250
    J/kg, and minimal lightning within the existing frontal band
    supports this fact.=20

    Given the narrow warm sector, loss of heating, and primarily cloud
    covered areas east of the surging front/dryline, it appears the
    severe weather threat will continue to decrease across the watch
    area. Some uptick in thunderstorm intensity cannot be ruled out
    farther south near the aforementioned heating plume, the very weak
    instability should preclude much of a severe risk despite the
    otherwise favorable large-scale synoptic pattern.

    ..Jewell.. 10/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_tQgRQqBa9lEqaVC8mF-2NTERMpH97z1BjYkbo8vhiFN8IK6z5ki4ES11fuW4dwAMroos-4uX= Nclfpx9gzNZAJubhu0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...

    LAT...LON 38999100 39779102 40419137 41119200 41809291 42059286
    42139234 41379094 40769036 40259021 39619023 39179035
    38979064 38919076 38999100=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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